The Hype Machine

Just a quick comment on the absurdity of much of the commentary on the ongoing Presidential nomination process. Most of the absurdity seems to be on the Democratic side.

The short story, it seems to me, is that the media and campaign staffs overreacted to the results of the Iowa Caucuses. They talked about the Obama wave and starting writing obituaries for Hillary.

As the New Hampshire returns began to firm up in the form of a Clinton victory, the media showed that they were NOT quick learners. Indeed, at the very moment of the pundits' and prognosticators' depantsification, they began overreacting to the latest results.

The best analogy I can think of is a child attempting to treat dizziness by spinning in the opposite direction.

For me, this was most properly distilled by a breathless Tim Russert declaring that Hillary's 2 percentage point victory was "One of the greatest political upsets in American political history."

Does that seem anything other than absurd in the light of the day after?

Did anyone notice or care that Clinton was a long-time leader in New Hampshire polls and it was only the polls taken in the 48-72 HOURS before the voting that showed an Obama lead. I want to give credit where credit is due. It would have been very very difficult for Clinton in the aftermath of a New Hamphire loss. But the "greatest comeback ever" ?!

Perhaps the only thing sillier that long-time poll leader Hillary Clinton carrying the mantle of "Comeback Kid" was the original moniker as applied to Bill Clinton.

In '92, the Democratic field cleared out of Iowa in calculated deference to native son Tom Harkin. Essentially, the Iowa Caucuses that year were conceded so nobody (except Harkin) could really win or lose. Then, in New Hampshire, Bill Clinton became the Comeback Kid by LOSING to Paul Tsongas by 8 points.

So... Not winning followed by not winning again = Comeback Kid? Huh?

But back to '08...

Admittedly, the tight time frame between voting in Iowa and New Hampshire made it more difficult to figure out what would happen. But I still think the lesson is to slow down a little bit. Obama was never in as good a shape as he seemed last Friday morning and Clinton is not in as good a shape as she seems today.

As for the Republican side, Mitt Romney's strategy of winning the early states and riding the momentum has gone horribly awry. Thompson is a non-event. Guliani is executing either the shrewdest or, more likely, the most moronic campaign strategy of all. Huckabee continues to exceed expectations and improbably, impossibly, John McCain is poised to assume the mantle of the GOP establishment's candidate which would likely be decisive.