Democratic VP Predictions

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It seems like the chattering classes have narrowed the Democratic choices to three: Joe Biden, Evan Bayh, and Tim Kaine. Then we can throw in Kathleen Sebelius and Hillary Clinton as wildcards.

Of these, I'd say Evan Bayh is the worst choice. He doesn't offer anything in particular. He's not exciting, he's experienced but he's so low key that nobody knows that. Yes, he's a long time Hillary supporter, but I don't see choosing him as placating anybody. He might help win Indiana, but Indiana (neighboring Illinois) is a state that Obama might snag anyway. Plus, the Governor of Indiana is Republican so that would subtract a Democratic Senator.

I think Joe Biden is the likely choice. He, like Cheney, would be the designated party elder / Washington insider. Again like Cheney, he wouldn't be expected to bring in any electoral college votes. He has extensive experience in the area of foreign policy (an alleged Obama weak point) and has the skills to be an effective attack dog in the campaign. Possible drawbacks would be that, as an insider, he would work at cross-purposes to Obama's "change" mantra and he can be an undisciplined, if entertaining, speaker. He put the "blo" in bloviate. Another point in his favor; the Governor of Delaware is a Democrat.

Tim Kaine might be the best choice. Like Bill Clinton choosing Al Gore and "doubling down" in the young-politician-from-the-South category, Kaine has the potential to reinforce the "change" mantra. And maybe, just maybe, he could put Virginia (which last voted for a Democrat over 40 years ago: LBJ in 1964) in play. The downside would be that he would not provide cover against charges of inexperience or weak foreign policy credentials against the ticket.

Honestly, the longer the Obama v. McCain match-up has evolved without Obama able to distance himself from McCain in the polling, the more I've thought that Hillary Clinton would be a good choice. I used to think that she was too polarizing a figure and the nation could use some time without a Bush or Clinton in the White House (first time since 1980!?). But, naturally, the Republicans are working overdrive to keep the country as polarized as they can. It would serve to unify the party after the hard feelings of the bruising primary and, let's be honest, she would be an outstanding attack dog. Here again I think of LBJ and, to paraphrase his comment about J. Edgar Hoover, "It's better to have [her] inside the tent pissing out, than outside the tent pissing in."

So there you have it. I think I'll feel pretty good about anybody other than Bayh. I think Kaine would be a strong choice and Clinton would bring the most energy (good and bad). In all likelihood, you didn't hear it here first, but I think the selection will be Joe Biden.