Republican VP Predictions

A follow up to my Democratic VP Predictions from last week...

On the GOP side, conventional wisdom is settling on: Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Joe Lieberman. The official "late breaking trial balloon that is transparently a ruse" is Kay Bailey Hutchinson. Tom Ridge and Sarah Palin are another couple wild cards that likely aren't under true consideration.

Tim Pawlenty is the official Dan Quayle option. Not in terms of him being a moron, but rather the "fresh young face" that shows that Republicans can be hip and cool. Some are even under the age of 50! I don't think he would lock up the battleground state of Minnesota's electoral votes (although he'd surely help), so I'm not sure what else he would bring to the ticket beyond the youth (relative) factor.

The downside is that he might make McCain look older than he already does and he'd undercut the arguments against Obama's relative youth and inexperience. In my opinion, Pawlenty is a highly unlikely choice. One thing I do like is his name. Pawlenty. A refreshing departure from the WASPy names on most tickets.

I think McCain wants to pick Joe Lieberman. He genuinely likes him. They have a good working relationship and have bonded over their shared support for the so-called War on Terror. Leaving aside the precise determination of whether or not McCain is, in fact, a "maverick", I think the selection of an Independent Democratic Senator as a running mate could only enhance his maverick credentials. Plus, Lieberman is very handy to have around because he can help McCain keep track of which Muslims we're fighting where. Choosing Joe would also potentially pick off a non-Republican member of the Senate since the governor of Connecticut is Republican. One last factor in Lieberman's favor is that including him would ipso facto bring Joementum to the ticket.

On the downside, well... He's not Republican. To the extent that Republicans are already facing an enthusiasm gap, I'd say including a pro-choice lifelong Democrat whom, for example, voted against the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice nominees Alito and Thomas and carries an F rating from the National Rifle Association might rub some people the wrong way.

One strange thing is that Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, and Sean Hannity all spoke out in favor of Lieberman and endorsed him during his 2006 senatorial election run. But that was in contrast to the anti-war Democratic candidate Ned Lamont. Somehow I think they'd be crankier at the thought of Lieberman on a GOP Presidential ticket. Imagine the bizarre spectacle of a Vice-Presidential debate between two Democratic Senators who agree with each other on just about everything.

Somewhat by default, that leaves Mitt Romney as the likely choice. With his experiences in the private sector and business success, he shores up McCain's weakness in the area of the economy. His physical appearance is "Presidential" to the point of type-casting. He's younger than John McCain (along with everyone else) but not dramatically so. Much of the religious right would be comfortable with Romney although so too are there are tensions between evangelicals and the L.D.S. He would likely bring many votes in the western states with significant Mormon populations and help in Michigan.

On the downside, his family's wealth might be problematic. He and his wife report assets around $200 million and the family also has a blind trust set up in the names of the children and grandchildren worth over $100 million. Americans typically don't respond to class warfare and wealth isn't a negative. However, after the embarrassing episode of McCain not knowing how many houses he owns, adding Romney's four homes (including a $12 million residence in La Jolla) might be a bit much. ( But seriously John, who has to check with their staff about how many homes they own? Louis XIV? ) Another thing that could hurt Romney is that he's a serial panderer. He's had just about every position on every issue at one point or another. Right or wrong, this leaves him vulnerable to attacks and causes many to question his true motivations, etc...

But the single biggest impediment might be that McCain and Romney hate each other. Here again, any attacks showing Biden (or Clinton) questioning Obama and/or his qualifications will be undercut by example after example of McCain and Romney going at it. Given his actions since he dropped out of the race, I think Romney could "get over it." I'm not so sure about McCain who is famously stubborn and temperamental.

So there you have it. I think McCain wants to pick BFF Joe Lieberman but will ultimately "settle" for Mitt Romney. Look for the news to be leaked tonight to deflect media attention on Obama's acceptance speech.